Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-31 0.345537 0.393795 0.446197 0.507303 0.576588 0.652694 0.742622
2025-09-07 0.280510 0.345634 0.421819 0.517454 0.634243 0.772187 0.947488
2025-09-14 0.219172 0.290013 0.378714 0.497778 0.653302 0.849461 1.115650
2025-09-21 0.177980 0.251684 0.349990 0.490419 0.685641 0.947241 1.324362
2025-09-28 0.145338 0.218752 0.322643 0.479946 0.711708 1.040273 1.541287
2025-10-05 0.126887 0.202385 0.315263 0.495645 0.776073 1.194834 1.867258
2025-10-12 0.108118 0.182185 0.298830 0.494967 0.815709 1.318626 2.166307
2025-10-19 0.094196 0.167155 0.287809 0.500623 0.865529 1.464408 2.520594
2025-10-26 0.083971 0.156464 0.281994 0.513591 0.928767 1.639905 2.948328
2025-11-02 0.070946 0.138572 0.260988 0.496833 0.938086 1.725514 3.234285
2025-11-09 0.059068 0.120718 0.237170 0.471034 0.926842 1.772715 3.457415
2025-11-16 0.051153 0.109125 0.223134 0.461250 0.943597 1.872331 3.790629
2025-11-23 0.044099 0.098308 0.209405 0.450933 0.959835 1.977197 4.157853
2025-11-30 0.039903 0.092779 0.205500 0.460120 1.017113 2.171112 4.733252
2025-12-07 0.034069 0.082604 0.190207 0.442683 1.015912 2.246292 5.074762
2025-12-14 0.029934 0.075562 0.180596 0.436193 1.037536 2.372618 5.545462
2025-12-21 0.026206 0.068799 0.170500 0.426906 1.051346 2.483832 5.999382
2025-12-28 0.024383 0.066415 0.170273 0.440940 1.121724 2.731892 6.803715
2026-01-04 0.021962 0.062040 0.164486 0.440362 1.156696 2.902698 7.450235
2026-01-11 0.020109 0.058839 0.161132 0.445425 1.206575 3.116228 8.232879
2026-01-18 0.018745 0.056741 0.160306 0.457005 1.275099 3.385359 9.195165
2026-01-25 0.016451 0.051544 0.150301 0.442069 1.270897 3.469663 9.691502
2026-02-01 0.014160 0.045912 0.138142 0.419068 1.240977 3.482681 10.000225